I apologize for this prediction blog but I feel like it's something that I have to say.
This election season has been quite interesting and unique considering that Barack Obama has gotten so far as a Presidential Candidate. However, my prediction that Obama will lose today is solely based on my cultural and media observations. I would say that the media frenzy surrounding Sarah Palin was a major turning point for the Republican party. Even though the Obama camp was able to out fundraise the Republicans, Sarah Palin attracted more press than they could have ever paid for. The way TV producer's drooled over Palin's presence was testament to the fact that this woman was TV gold in front of the camera.
Now you may be saying, "Palin has gotten a lot of publicity for looking unintelligent and unqualified so that should hurt the Republican campaign." This would be a great argument in a country that didn't elect George W. Bush twice. No matter how unintelligent the candidate may be, many of the voting public do not base their decisions on the issues most rational people would. From what I
have seen in the last year, those who will be voting McCain this election are either;
a. People who who put adherence to conservative interpretation of social issues before anything else.
b. Wealthy Americans who fear that new fiscal plans may threaten their standard of living.
c. People who see a person of color in office as a threat to the fabric of American (read "white") values.
Sarah Palin's media phenomenon has further perpetuated the appeal to "real" Americans who may not have all the right answers at the right times but they represent someone "we wouldn't mind leaving our kids with" and "are a friendly, familiar face we can trust."
There are many Americans who wouldn't trust a black man with their kids, what makes us think they would elect him into the highest elected office?
I'll say that I hope and pray that I am wrong about what I have said but don't be surprised if McCain wins. Barack Obama winning the election would be a major turn in America for the better, not because Obama is capable of changing the whole country but the election of a man of color into the presidency would give hope to millions of people who feel they will never be able to accomplish much nor be treated as equals. In addition, Obama winning could bring us a tad closer to an America that sees more people like Cynthia McKinney in Congress.