I apologize for this prediction blog but I feel like it's something that I have to say.This election season has been quite interesting and unique considering that Barack Obama has gotten so far as a Presidential Candidate. However, my prediction that Obama will lose today is solely based on my cultural and media observations. I would say that the media frenzy surrounding Sarah Palin was a major turning point for the Republican party. Even though the Obama camp was able to out fundraise the Republicans, Sarah Palin attracted more press than they could have ever paid for. The way TV producer's drooled over Palin's presence was testament to the fact that this woman was TV gold in front of the camera.
Now you may be saying, "Palin has gotten a lot of publicity for looking unintelligent and unqualified so that should hurt the Republican campaign." This would be a great argument in a country that didn't elect George W. Bush twice. No matter how unintelligent the candidate may be, many of the voting public do not base their decisions on the issues most rational people would. From what I
have seen in the last year, those who will be voting McCain this election are either;
a. People who who put adherence to conservative interpretation of social issues before anything else.
b. Wealthy Americans who fear that new fiscal plans may threaten their standard of living.
c. People who see a person of color in office as a threat to the fabric of American (read "white") values.
Sarah Palin's media phenomenon has further perpetuated the appeal to "real" Americans who may not have all the right answers at the right times but they represent someone "we wouldn't mind leaving our kids with" and "are a friendly, familiar face we can trust."
There are many Americans who wouldn't trust a black man with their kids, what makes us think they would elect him into the highest elected office?
I'll say that I hope and pray that I am wrong about what I have said but don't be surprised if McCain wins. Barack Obama winning the election would be a major turn in America for the better, not because Obama is capable of changing the whole country but the election of a man of color into the presidency would give hope to millions of people who feel they will never be able to accomplish much nor be treated as equals. In addition, Obama winning could bring us a tad closer to an America that sees more people like Cynthia McKinney in Congress.
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1 comment:
I wish you were right, bro, at least for the short term aspect of all of this. It would be much more difficult - given current global opinion - for another old WASP of a President to wage another war in the middle east, or in Africa - given the recent developments of Chinese incursions for resources that slam the door shut to any possible US projects, because America can't beat Chinese labor wages, or the low prices of contracts offered by the Chinese to poor African countries like Chad and Nigeria. And it's our country that is most fearful of the looming threat posed by Peak Oil.
But now, the world is rallying behind Obama - Opportunist Obama, as I like to call him. The same Obama who "politely" asked two American Muslim women to leave their seats at a televised speech, for fear it would "convey the wrong message" to America. The same Obama who, in front of American audiences, vows to fight for every one of our rights and interests, somehow make universal healthcare magically happen, spread the wealth around and miraculously eradicate poverty, but then in front of an Israeli Political Action Committee, promises to unilaterally uphold the interests of that tiny middle-eastern country "no matter what". USS Liberty, anyone? More like career security for Mr. Obama.
Trust that when an African American, son of a Muslim, makes it to the White House, and "attempts diplomacy" with this country's most outspoken enemies, nobody will be surprised - in fact, few may even protest - when the bombs start to fall on Tehran, or when we send strike-teams into Khartoum. Not to mention the horrendous laws positioned against the real interests of our neighbors in Latin America, that will sprint through legislation with no problem on Obama's watch.
In the long run, of course an Obama win would be revolutionary and create something unforgettable for history books. And yes, many people at home would have a rekindled sense of hope. But the honeymoon won't last long.
As for now, McCain is making pitiful attempts to defend even traditionally red states. So Obama will sweep this election, and in a year or two disappoint many of his current supporters as they face the reality of our circumstances over the next 4 years, and as Obama himself fails to deliver on campaign promises - as he's likely already personally aware.
As far as easing the road for third parties that represent true American interests and integrity, I'm not sure Obama's win would do that. It would probably just lend itself to the false argument that one must be a part of the two-party system to even stand a chance at winning. Ron Paul would even acknowledge this, as he used his party affiliation as a tactic to come closer to the Presidency than anybody on any similar platform (i.e. third-party candidates). In fact, I'm excited for what's in store 4 years from today, as I think Paul may run again as a Republican, and use it to his advantage, with many people acutely aware of the sense in his arguments.
The Pauls, Naders, and McKinneys out there are pulling their own weight, and have been for decades. It's up to us to provide their support base, consistently, and not give in to the mistaken logic (read: lies) coming from their special-interest GOP and Democrat competitors, trying to make us think our efforts are in vain.
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